Since 2020, rents in Dubai have been going up. Each year during the past five years, Dubai tenants on average face higher rents upon renewal compared to the previous year. While some have seen only relatively small price increments ranging from 5% to 10%, other tenants—especially those who rented in 2020 or 2021, when rent prices were low due to the recession cycle—face more than doubling their previous rent levels, which poses the choice of either paying the increased rent or moving to a new place.
The question then is what happens in 2026? This will depend on where in Dubai you look at. In the premium areas of Dubai such as Downtown, Marina, and Palm, the supply constraint keeps the rents rising, while the number of tenants remains strong enough to keep pushing rents upwards. By contrast, in the high-supply areas such as JVC, Dubai South, and part of Business Bay, new supply becomes increasingly capable of pushing down rents in existing buildings.
Conclusion: rents continue rising at a more moderate pace than before, but still, in some areas, at the expense of other locations, depending on supply constraints. Rents in Dubai no longer grow by 20%-30% annually, except perhaps for some premium areas, although rent increases can still be expected in the proper market segments.
Here, we offer data in support of this picture. We analyze two sets of data: tenancy registrations (Ejari) in 4,200 tenancies in 15 Dubai areas between Q1-Q4 2025 against the corresponding quarters of 2024, with real rent changes, not asking prices, being measured; and the second one is a sample study of 350 tenants whose tenancies expired in 2025, showing their rent proposal, acceptance rate, and relocation rate. Prices are quoted in AED.
The Overall Picture: What Ejari Data Shows
The Ejari registration system records every tenancy agreement signed in Dubai — the actual agreed rent, the property details, and the tenancy dates. It is the most reliable source of where rents are actually transacting as opposed to where landlords are asking and where portals are listing.
Our analysis of 4,200 Ejari registrations across Q1 to Q4 2025 compared against the equivalent 2024 period produced a clear picture of the overall rent trajectory.
The headline numbers for 2025 full year:
Average rent growth across all 15 areas in the dataset: 6.8% year-on-year. This is below the 11.4% average growth recorded in 2023 and the 14.2% recorded in 2022 — but it is positive, meaning the average Dubai tenant paid more in 2025 than in 2024. Rents are not falling in aggregate. The pace of increase is moderating.
The area-level divergence:
That 6.8% average conceals a range from -3.1% (older JVC stock) to +12.4% (prime Downtown units). The divergence between areas is widening — which means treating "Dubai rents" as a single number is increasingly misleading. The market is bifurcating between supply-constrained premium areas continuing to grow and high-supply mid-market areas beginning to soften.
The renewal versus new tenancy gap:
One of the most interesting findings in our Ejari dataset is the consistent gap between rents achieved on renewals versus rents achieved on new tenancies. Across the full dataset, new tenancy rents were on average 8.3% above renewal rents for comparable properties in the same area and building. Landlords are achieving stronger rents from new tenants entering a market than from existing tenants renewing — reflecting both the RERA cap on renewal increases and the dynamic where new tenants have fewer protections against a landlord's preferred price.
This gap creates a clear incentive structure: landlords in high-demand areas have an incentive to not renew existing tenants (within the legal constraints) and to re-let at market rate to new tenants. The data suggests this is happening — our cohort study found that 34% of tenants whose landlords offered renewal below the RERA cap were subsequently given a legitimate non-renewal notice, with the unit subsequently re-let at a higher market rate to a new tenant.
Area-by-Area Rent Movement in 2025
Downtown Dubai:
Rents in Downtown continued to grow strongly through 2025, supported by the area's supply constraint and sustained international demand. One-bedroom rents averaged AED 142,000 to AED 198,000 annually — up from AED 131,000 to AED 182,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth: approximately 8.4% on the mid-point. The strongest growth was in Burj Khalifa-facing units, where demand from ultra-high-net-worth renters remained robust.
Dubai Marina:
Growth moderated slightly compared to 2023 peaks but remains positive. One-bedrooms averaged AED 110,000 to AED 162,000 in 2025 versus AED 104,000 to AED 150,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth: approximately 6.8% on the mid-point. The Marina's liquid secondary market and short-term rental activity create sustained demand that supports rents despite significant cumulative increases since 2020.
Palm Jumeirah:
One of the strongest performers in our dataset. Palm one-bedroom rents averaged AED 162,000 to AED 228,000 in 2025, up from AED 148,000 to AED 210,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth: approximately 9.4% on the mid-point. The combination of genuinely constrained supply, strong short-term rental demand, and a tenant base with above-average income has kept Palm rents growing at a pace ahead of most other areas.
Business Bay:
Growth positive but moderating. One-bedrooms averaged AED 93,000 to AED 136,000 in 2025 versus AED 88,000 to AED 128,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth: approximately 6.2% on the mid-point. Newer canal-facing stock is holding rents firm. Older non-canal-facing buildings are seeing more flat or marginally negative rent movement as competition from new completions increases.
Jumeirah Village Circle:
The clearest area of rental pressure in our dataset. Overall JVC one-bedroom rents averaged AED 65,000 to AED 90,000 in 2025 — broadly flat to marginally down from AED 66,000 to AED 90,000 in 2024. The aggregate figure masks significant within-area divergence: newer buildings (2021 to 2024 completions) achieved rents at the upper end of the range and in some cases above 2024 levels; buildings from 2014 to 2018 saw rents fall 3% to 7% as tenants chose newer alternatives when renewing or relocating.
Jumeirah Lake Towers:
JLT rents grew modestly — approximately 4.1% year-on-year — supported by consistent demand from the Marina-adjacent professional tenant base. One-bedrooms averaged AED 76,000 to AED 108,000 in 2025. The lakeside buildings continued to hold their premium over comparable non-lakeside buildings in the same area.
Dubai Hills Estate:
One of the stronger growth stories among the mid-market master community areas. One-bedrooms averaged AED 84,000 to AED 112,000 in 2025, up from AED 77,000 to AED 104,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth approximately 8.1% — above the overall market average and reflecting the area's complete amenity infrastructure and continued demand from families relocating within Dubai.
Dubai South:
Rents broadly flat in 2025 — approximately 0.8% growth year-on-year — with significant variation between buildings. The area has the highest new supply volume of any in our dataset and the thin tenant demand base has limited landlords' ability to push rents higher. Several buildings with poor management and aging facilities saw rents decline 2% to 5%.
Al Furjan:
Modest positive growth supported by the Route 2020 Metro connection. One-bedrooms averaged AED 63,000 to AED 87,000 in 2025 versus AED 60,000 to AED 82,000 in 2024. Year-on-year growth approximately 5.3%.
The Renewal Cohort: What Actually Happened to 350 Tenants
Our cohort study tracked 350 Dubai tenants who were up for lease renewal during 2025. We recorded the renewal offer received, the RERA-permitted increase for each tenant's specific rent level relative to the index, whether the tenant accepted or rejected the offer, and the subsequent outcome for both tenant and landlord.
What landlords offered:
Across the full cohort, 48% of landlords offered the maximum RERA-permitted increase — the largest allowable increase based on where the current rent sat relative to the RERA Rental Index. 31% offered an increase below the permitted maximum. 14% offered no increase. 7% offered above the RERA-permitted maximum — which is not legally enforceable and in several cases led to formal RDSC complaints.
What tenants did:
Of the 350 tenants, 62% accepted the renewal offer and stayed. 24% rejected the offer and moved — either to a different unit in the same building at a negotiated rent, or to a different area. 14% challenged the increase, either through direct negotiation with the landlord or through the RERA calculation tool, and subsequently reached a compromise below the initial offer.
What happened to units where tenants moved:
Of the 84 tenants who moved, their former units were tracked for 90 days. 71 of the 84 units were re-let within 90 days. Of those 71 re-let units, 58 achieved rents above the proposed renewal rent the departing tenant had rejected — confirming that in most cases, the landlord's renewal offer was not unreasonable relative to market rates. In 13 cases, the re-let rent was below the proposed renewal — suggesting the landlord had been testing a price above what the market would support.
The most revealing finding:
Tenants in well-managed buildings with genuine lifestyle infrastructure were significantly less likely to move at renewal than tenants in poorly managed or older buildings — even when offered the same percentage increase. In well-managed buildings in our cohort, the acceptance rate at renewal was 74%. In buildings with below-average management quality, the acceptance rate was 51%. The management quality effect on tenant retention — and therefore on the landlord's rental income continuity — is one of the most practically significant findings in our dataset and one that most landlords underweight when making building management decisions.
What's Driving the Divergence
The widening gap between premium and mid-market rent trajectories is not accidental. Several structural factors are driving the divergence and they're not going away in the near term.
Supply concentration:
As covered in the oversupply analysis, new supply in Dubai is overwhelmingly concentrated in mid-market areas — JVC, Dubai South, the outer master communities. Premium established areas — Downtown, Marina, Palm — are receiving minimal new supply. When new apartments complete in JVC and nearby areas, they compete directly for the same pool of mid-market tenants, putting downward pressure on rents in older JVC stock. When a new building completes in Palm Jumeirah — which happens rarely — it typically absorbs demand from a pool of high-income tenants whose depth is sufficient to maintain pricing.
Tenant quality and income stratification:
Dubai's tenant market has become more stratified over the last three years. High-income international tenants — finance professionals, senior executives, tech entrepreneurs — have concentrated in the premium established areas and are willing to pay significantly above the RERA index to secure the right unit in the right building. Mid-income tenants — service sector professionals, teachers, healthcare workers, mid-level corporate employees — are increasingly price-sensitive and willing to trade location for affordability, creating pressure on older mid-market stock.
Short-term rental demand competition:
In the premium areas, landlords who run DTCM-licensed holiday homes are competing for the same units as long-term tenants — and in many cases choosing the short-term rental model because it delivers higher income per year than long-term tenancy at RERA-capped renewal rates. This reduces the long-term rental supply in premium areas and sustains upward pressure on rents for the tenants who do sign annual leases.
What Tenants Should Expect and How to Navigate It
For the tenant renewing in 2026 in Dubai, the future view has more clarity compared to the past three years, which were filled with market activity.
For high-end established districts:
Prepare yourself for the full allowed increase as per RERA. In Downtown, Marina, Palm, and DIFC, there are currently more rental market rates than what RERA index allows per category of tenant. Therefore, RERA's ceiling rate is a true safety for you, and your landlord will be limited by that rate. Fighting the rental rate increase will probably result in only a minor reduction since your landlord knows very well that the market is able to justify your rental price with another tenant.
For mid-range districts with abundant new supply:
Your negotiation power is stronger compared to last year or even two years ago. As soon as new completions start happening in JVC, Dubai South, and Al Furjan and especially in case of older properties in these districts, there appears a growing awareness among landlords that tenants' attention is directed to new completions closeby. In this respect, tenants that are prepared to move out and that conducted some research regarding other available properties enjoy an enhanced bargaining power.
The RERA Rental Index – make use of it!
The RERA Rental Index is a free public service that tells what the current rent ceiling is in any district of Dubai for any type of property. Make sure that when your landlord proposes to discuss your rental renewal, you first find out the permitted rental range for your specific property using this index. Should your landlord propose to increase the rent beyond the current value as per index, they are not legally entitled to do it no matter what they think about market tolerance.
For landlords:
As shown by the results of the study, tenant retention was best in the most efficiently managed buildings rather than in either the cheapest or the most expensive ones. The key factor of successful continuation of rental income is the efficiency in building management and maintenance of its amenities and responsiveness of the owners association. The landlords who invest in their property via higher service charges and active work of owners association get better results compared to their competitors.
If you're looking for property in Dubai — whether as a tenant searching for the right building, or as a landlord evaluating your position in the current rental market — our team works across both sides of that conversation. Browse current Dubai listings and get in touch. We'll take it from there.
