Emaar Founder Predicts Dubai Property Market Balance by 2027 Amidst New Supply Wave

Mohamed Alabbar, the visionary founder of Emaar Properties, predicts that Dubai's property market will achieve a more balanced state by 2027, driven by a significant wave of new housing supply entering the market. This outlook was shared at the AIM Congress, where Alabbar acknowledged an "extraordinary situation" could lead to a 5-10% price adjustment.

Emaar's Strategy Amid Market Shifts

Alabbar highlighted that despite some developers offering considerable price reductions, ranging from 20% to 50%, Emaar is resolutely resisting such practices. His company's policy is centred on delivering "good product" and maintaining "good cash flow," eschewing discounts to stimulate sales. This approach underlines Emaar's commitment to pricing discipline and financial resilience, even as the market transitions into a rebalancing phase following years of robust post-pandemic growth. While transaction volumes and macro fundamentals remain strong, the industry is adapting to localised price corrections and a shift towards an end-user market.

Affordability and Resilience

Alabbar emphasised the importance of housing affordability for Dubai's sustained growth, advocating for property prices to remain at an appropriate level for both renters and buyers. He also pointed to Dubai's strong policies and data as key reasons for Emaar's continued investment in the city, despite regional uncertainties. Emaar currently has nearly 50,000 units under construction in the UAE, out of a global pipeline of 90,000 homes across approximately 18 countries.

Geopolitical Impact and AI Adoption

Reflecting on market dynamics, Alabbar noted a temporary increase in cancellation rates during periods of regional conflict, from an average of 700 to 1,100 units per month, before returning to around 550 after ceasefires. He expressed confidence in customer payments, viewing it as a sign of trust in Dubai, its government, and Emaar. For international investors with strong financial positions, Alabbar suggested that periods of uncertainty present opportunities to explore the region.

Alabbar also highlighted the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Emaar's operations, noting its ability to dramatically accelerate processes like master planning (from nine months to four hours) and feasibility studies (from three months to four minutes). He stressed the importance of employees actively adopting AI to remain relevant within the company.