UAE Central Bank Raises 2027 GDP Growth Forecast to 10.4% Amid Oil and Non-Oil Expansion

The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) has revised its 2027 GDP growth forecast upwards to 10.4%, a notable increase from the 9.8% projected in its June Quarterly Economic Review. This 0.6 percentage point adjustment is primarily attributed to anticipated higher oil production and sustained growth in the non-oil economy.

Driving Factors for Growth

The CBUAE's latest Quarterly Economic Review highlights that this robust growth will be supported by an expected increase in oil production to five million barrels per day (mbpd) by 2027. This reflects the normalisation of production conditions, with a projected 26.8% increase in hydrocarbon activity contributing to the overall economic expansion.

The non-oil sectors are also forecasted to maintain strong momentum. Following a 6.8% growth in 2025, non-oil GDP is projected to expand by 1.3% in 2026 and further accelerate to 4.9% in 2027. This sustained growth underscores the diversification efforts across various non-hydrocarbon sectors. The CBUAE expects the economy to maintain positive growth over the medium term, with overall real GDP growth projected at 1.6% in 2026, driven by a 2.4% expansion in hydrocarbon activity.

Broader Economic Context and Support Measures

The CBUAE's optimistic outlook aligns with recent statements from UAE Minister of Economy and Tourism, Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri, who described the upcoming year as a “counter-attack year” with a significant economic rebound. This confidence stems from improving sentiment and receding concerns following recent regional developments.

On top of that, the UAE's fiscal position remains strong, with low public debt and substantial sovereign assets providing a robust buffer to support the economy. Ongoing initiatives such as the CBUAE Financial Resilience Package, Dubai’s AED 2.5 billion support initiative, and infrastructure-related public expenditure are expected to further stimulate economic activity and foster a favourable environment for businesses and investment.